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Election night numbers can signal fraud
Too many high-turnout landslides suggests ballot stuffing
Web edition : Monday, January 23rd, 2012
Election fraud comes in many flavors, but there?s a new taste test for one sort of trickery. Scientists analyzing data from several recent international contests, including the questionable 2011 parliamentary elections in Russia, have proposed a new mathematical measure to discern fraudulent elections from fair ones.
The researchers examined voter turnout and votes received by the winning party for recent parliamentary elections in Russia, Austria, Finland, Switzerland and the United Kingdom and for presidential elections in Uganda and the United States. Graphing the relationship between turnout and votes for the winner revealed unusual peaks in the data for the elections in Russia and Uganda ? a signature of funny business, the scientists contend.
Ballot stuffing best explains the data, says study coauthor Peter Klimek, a complex systems scientist at the Medical University of Vienna.
?Of course, this is a statistical detection technique, not conclusive proof,? says Klimek, who, along with Stefan Thurner and other University of Vienna colleagues, reported the analysis online January 15 at arXiv.org. But the numbers need explaining, ?and nothing explains them as cleanly as the fraud hypothesis,? Klimek says.
Thousands of precincts in Russia and districts in Uganda reported 100 percent voter turnout with 100 percent of those votes for the winning party, the researchers found. Graph these data various ways? and the fraud signature pops out, notes Klimek. Plotting votes for the winner against voter turnout, for example, reveals a line that slopes off into a plateau for most countries, but for Russia and Uganda those lines keep climbing right off the graph.
Similar analyses of the recent elections for the Russian legislative body, the State Duma, have also found statistical aberrations suggesting the elections weren?t fair. In fact, the Russian online newspaper Gazeta.ru ran photographs of thousands protesting the elections, including a mathematician whose sign depicted one of the telltale graphs of the results. ?If United Russia were an NFL team, they would win 5 percent of their games with a score of 1,000 to zero,? says Klimek.
There are possible explanations for the Vienna researchers? results besides fraud. Some districts are ?special places,? notes Walter Mebane of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, a statistician, political scientist and expert on Russian elections. When nearly 100 percent of the voters who turn out vote for the same party or candidate, that doesn?t necessarily indicate ballot stuffing, Mebane says. The demographics of each area have to be taken into account; for example, a very militarized area might have very high support for one party.
And there are many ways to commit fraud besides ballot stuffing. Making it difficult for particular groups of people to vote, manipulating campaign finance laws and good old coercion are just some of the other tactics that can turn an election.
Political scientist Judith Kelley of Duke University, who has been investigating election monitoring around the world, says the new analysis is ?very clever.?
?I?m all for these methods ? we can never have eyes everywhere,? says Kelley. ?Of course the guys that are really good at stealing elections don?t really do it when counting votes. They have a much broader apparatus.??
Found in: Numbers and Science & Society
Source: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/337838/title/Election_night_numbers_can_signal_fraud
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Jennifer Lopez on Idol Contestants, ?They?re Little Pop Stars in a Box!?
At the most recent American Idol press conference located at the Wynn Las Vegas, judges Randy Jackson, Jennifer Lopez and newly engaged Steven Tyler weighed in on their latest crop of Idol hopefuls. Jennifer thinks this year?s round of contestants is better than ever. ?I think the stakes each year get better and better. There?s so many amazingly talented artists this year.? While Randy told In Touch to expect ?a lot of soulful [contestants]. A lot of Adele?s?, Steven gave some insight as to why she?s become such a popular singer for the contestants. ?Adele is a good example of singing from the heart. It?s from the heart, it?s from the spirit. That?s why that sold. She?s so soulful and the kids today that have these vocal gymnastics, it?s just astounding, and the ones that we have this year are just over the top.? Even Jennifer thinks this year they?ve found the total package. ?Not only the voices, but they also seem to have the whole package, they understand that there?s a performance that needs to be there, they?re gonna have to dress a certain way. They?re like little pop stars in a box!?
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/InTouchWeekly/~3/Xdi2c51mmX4/jennifer_lopez_on_idol_contest.php
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Kuwait: Envoy to US during Iraq invasion dies (AP)
KUWAIT CITY ? Sheik Saud Al Nasser Al Sabah, who served as Kuwait's ambassador to the U.S. during Iraq's 1990 invasion of the oil-rich country and the American-led war to oust Saddam Hussein's forces, has died, a government-backed newspaper reported Sunday. He was 68.
Al-Qabas said the former diplomat died Saturday. It gave no cause of death.
A member of Kuwait's royal family, Sheik Nasser was a leading voice calling for international help during Iraq's occupation. But he was forced to defend his tactics when it was revealed that his then-teenage daughter, Nayirah, told U.S. lawmakers in October 1990 that she had witnessed Iraqi soldiers yank newborn babies from incubators. Several rights groups later questioned the account, which helped galvanize U.S. public opinion in favor of war.
A statement Sunday from former President George H. W. Bush called Sheik Nasser a "trusted partner" during the occupation and the U.S.-led war in 1991 that drove Saddam's military from Kuwait.
"Throughout that defining ordeal, he stood proudly with the United States as our coalition ejected Saddam's forces from Kuwaiti soil and upheld international law," said Bush's statement from Houston. "He was truly a good man, and a joy with whom to work."
Sheik Nasser served as Kuwait's envoy to Washington from 1981 to 1992. He later served in Kuwait's government as information minister and oil minister.
In the past decade, he played an elder statesmen's role with close ties to the White House and U.S. officials.
He also was a strong opponent of anti-Western views by Islamic hard-liners in Kuwait. In 2003, he joined other Kuwaiti leaders in endorsing the U.S. invasion of Iraq and called it the "beginning of the end" for Muslim extremists.
Al-Qabas newspaper said a funeral was scheduled for Sunday.
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Pantech Burst, Element now on sale at AT&T
The Pantech Element tablet and Burst smartphone made up a third of the half-dozen LTE devices that AT&T announced at its annual Developer Summit. And, now, they're available for purchase. You can get the Element, an 8-inch water resistant tablet, and the Burst, a 4-inch smartphone, by themselves for $300 and $50 each, respectively, on contract. Or, you can buy them together for $250 total (with a couple lines to pay for, however).
More at AT&T: Pantech Element, Pantech Burst
See our hands on: Pantech Element, Pantech Burst
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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/androidcentral/~3/F6_1ssubzSA/story01.htm
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Mixed record for Obama's State of the Union goals
WASHINGTON (AP) ? As President Barack Obama prepares to deliver his annual address to Congress, many goals he outlined in previous State of the Union speeches remain unfulfilled. From reforming immigration laws to meeting monthly with congressional leaders of both parties, the promises fell victim to congressional opposition or faded in face of other priorities as the unruly realities of governing set in.
For Obama, like presidents before him, the State of the Union is an opportunity like no other to state his case on a grand stage, before both houses of Congress and a prime-time television audience. But as with other presidents, the aspirations he's laid out have often turned out to be ephemeral, unable to secure the needed congressional consent or requiring follow-through that's not been forthcoming.
As Obama's first term marches to an end amid bitterly divided government and an intense campaign by Republicans to take his job, it's going to be even harder for him to get things done this year. So Tuesday night's speech may focus as much on making an overarching case for his presidency ? and for a second term ? as on the kind of laundry list of initiatives that sometimes characterize State of the Union appeals.
"State of the Union addresses are kind of like the foam rubber rocks they used on Star Trek ? they look solid but aren't," said Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College. "Presidents will talk about solving some policy problem, and then the bold language of the State of the Union address disappears into the messy reality of governing."
For Obama, last year's State of the Union offers a case study in that dynamic. Speaking to a newly divided government not long after the assassination attempt on Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, Ariz., Obama pleaded for national unity, a grand goal that never came to pass as Washington quickly dissolved into one partisan dispute after another.
Many of the particulars Obama rolled out that night proved just as hard to pull off.
Among the initiatives Obama promoted then that have yet to come to fruition a year later: eliminating subsidies to oil companies; replacing No Child Left Behind with a better education law; making a tuition tax credit permanent; rewriting immigration laws; and reforming the tax system.
The list of what he succeeded in accomplishing is considerably shorter, including: securing congressional approval of a South Korea free trade deal; signing legislation to undo a burdensome tax reporting requirement in his health care law; and establishing a website to show taxpayers where their tax dollars go.
One of Obama's pledges from last January's speech ? to undertake a reorganization of the federal government ? he got around to rolling out only this month. And other promises are vaguer or more long term, such as declaring a "Sputnik moment" for today's generation and calling for renewed commitments to research and development and clean energy technology; pushing to prepare more educators to teach science, technology and math; promoting high-speed rail and accessible broadband; and seeking greater investments in infrastructure.
"Clearly as time goes on and a presidency matures you get less and less of it and the State of the Union becomes an aspiration for what you want to do as opposed to a road map for what you can accomplish," said Princeton University historian Julian Zelizer. As voters' enthusiasm fades and opposition deepens, Zelizer said, "You lose some of your power and you get closer to the next election and no one wants to work with you."
Last year's address already contained more modest goals than the speech Obama gave to a joint session of Congress a month after his inauguration, which although not technically a State of the Union report had the feel of one. At the time Obama called for overhauling health care and ending the war in Iraq ? promises he kept ? but also for closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba and imposing caps on carbon pollution ? promises unmet.
Some of his goals, such as immigration and education reform, have resurfaced in multiple addresses, but still without being accomplished.
And rarely has Obama's rhetoric as president reached as high as the lofty promises of his campaign, when he pledged to change the very way Washington does business and remake politics itself. It's a far cry from those promises of change to the ambition of meeting monthly with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders ? but even that relatively modest goal, from Obama's 2010 State of the Union, went unfulfilled.
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Does Newt Own a Beet Farm? (Powerlineblog)
Delek says government rejects collateral for HSBC loan (Reuters)
JERUSALEM (Reuters) ? Israeli conglomerate Delek Group (DLEKG.TA) said on Sunday that the collateral to back an HSBC (HSBA.L) loan for its gas exploration units had been rejected by Israel's Petroleum Commissioner.
Last month, Delek Drilling (DEDRp.TA) and Avner Oil Exploration (AVNRp.TA) received a $250 million non-recourse loan from HSBC for the development of the Tamar and Leviathan natural gas sites off Israel's Mediterranean Coast and other expenses.
The companies sought to use the partnership rights in the Leviathan project as collateral but the regulator rejected the plan, Delek said in a statement to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
"The commissioner noted ... that if the partnerships decide to submit a new application, they would have to include clarifications with regard to the Tamar lease work and development financing plan and provide supporting documents," Delek said.
"The partnerships are considering additional steps, which include resubmission of an application with the new requirements."
The Tamar prospect, which contains an estimated 9.1 trillion cubic feet of gas, is due online in 2013, with Tamar expected to supply Israel's gas needs for more than 15 years. A nearby site, Leviathan, is nearly twice as large and due to be online around 2017.
Delek and Avner are part of a group led by U.S.-based Noble Energy (NBL.N) developing natural gas wells off Israel's Mediterranean coast.
Noble holds 36 percent of Tamar, while Delek and Avner own 15.625 percent each and Isramco Negev (ISRAp.TA) holds 28.75 percent.
The reliance on Israeli gas has intensified since supplies from Egypt have been erratic as militants have attacked the pipeline between Egypt and Israel 10 times in the past year.
(Reporting by Steven Scheer; Editing by Hans-Juergen Peters)
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Keystone XL oil pipeline ensnared in political gamesmanship
Republicans tried to force Obama's hand on the permit to construct the Keystone XL oil pipeline, and now he's forced theirs. The fight may not be over, signaling that energy will be a 2012 campaign issue.?
No doubt about it, the proposed 1,700-mile-long Keystone XL oil pipeline has become a political ping-pong ball, with congressional Republicans and President Obama batting it back and forth with rising election-year ferocity.
Skip to next paragraphIn denying a construction permit for the controversial energy project on Wednesday, well ahead of the Feb. 21 deadline for announcing his decision, Mr. Obama caught his congressional adversaries off guard. The Obama campaign then immediately released its first broadcast ad of the 2012 campaign, accusing "secretive oil billionaires" of spreading misinformation about the administration's record on clean energy.
Obama's move, and the previous one by Congress to graft the pipeline decision onto end-of-year legislation to extend the payroll tax cut for American workers for 60 days, indicates that the nation's energy future is likely to be a significant campaign issue in Election 2012.?
The president signaled that his pipeline decision included some tit for tat. ?This announcement is not a judgment on the merits of the pipeline but the arbitrary nature of a [congressional] deadline that prevented the State Department from gathering the information necessary to approve the project and protect the American people,? Obama said.
GOP congressional leaders, of course, slammed the decision. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said the move ?shows a fundamental disconnect with job creation in this country.? House Speaker John Boehner said: ?This is not the end of the fight.?
Republicans could yet try to revive the oil pipeline, perhaps by attaching it to upcoming legislation. Congress must soon take up the payroll tax cut, again, and needs to address a looming 27 percent cut in fees to physicians who treat Medicare patients, as well as whether to continue to extend federal jobless benefits. ?
A conference committee set up to resolve an impasse over extending the payroll tax cuts through fiscal 2012?has set its first formal meeting for next Tuesday afternoon, upon the Senate's return. Senate Finance chairman Max Baucus (D) of Montana and House Ways and Means chairman Dave Camp (R) of Michigan, the lead negotiators, have begun informal discussions.
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